by R.G. Gidadhubli and Rama Sampathkumar
The well-known international media organisation Forbes ranked the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, as the world's most powerful man from 2013 to 2016—four times in a row. Prior to that Times magazine named Putin as the ‘Person of the Year in 2007'. In fact Putin has dominated the political scene both at home and abroad for more than one-and-a-half decade. Hence it may be worthwhile to examine and analyse as to how and why Putin has earned this ranking and emerged as a powerful leader from the global perspective.
First, Putin has managed to showcase his leadership quality, often critical, in the media in the USA. This is mainly because of the unexpected victory of Doland Trump in the US presidential election held in December 2016. In this context there have been ongoing allegations of Russia's involvement in hacking in the election campaign by the Kremlin meaning thereby on the order of the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, supporting Doland Trump and against Hillary Clinton. This has been emphatically denied by the Russian Government. Even as there is an ongoing debate and controversy, the US President-elect, Donald Trump, has shrugged off allegations that Russia meddled in the election. Thus even as both Putin and Trump have denied, both have benefited.
Hence having won the election, as per reports on January 29, 2017, Donald had a one-hour telephonic talk with Putin within a few days after his taking over the presidency; and this hit the media news. Even as officially this talk was a part of protocol, Trump, who had pledged to mend ties with Moscow in his election campaign, has reiterated this after taking over the presidency of America. Thus Trump may be indirectly obliged to Putin for his success in the ‘controversial' election.
Be that as it may, Putin's shrewd diplomacy is evident from the fact that, as reported by the Russian press on December 30, 2016, after Trump got elected he opted out of a tit-for-tat retaliation against the United States which under Obama's administration in November 2016 had kicked out 35 Russian officials over allegations of hacking aimed at interfering in the US election, espionage, and harassment of US diplomats in Russia. At any rate this has further helped Trump to hold on to his contention in favour of Putin and improve relations with Russia.
Trump has expressed his admiration for the Russian leadership's quality and strength to deal with problems including fight against Islamic terrorism, which will also be his own policy priority. Moreover there is media speculation whether with improved relations with Putin, Trump will soften Western policy of economic sanctions on Russia for its annexation of Crimea and the ongoing conflict in the eastern part of Ukraine. In fact it is important to note that Trump also did not support the media allegation against Putin as a ‘killer' that was reported by Times Global on February 6, 2017. Russia has demanded apology from the American mediaperson.
Looking back, in 2016 along with Putin's rising power certain events proved positive for Russia. For instance, the Brexit vote exposed the deep rifts in the European Union that have benefited Russia as some of the EU members are critical of Putin. It may be argued that Putin's regime has taken careful aim at the soft underbelly of Western democratic institutions. Hence Donald Trump's victory might pave the way for a break from the traditional Washington policy towards Moscow that Putin has been looking for.
Secondly, Putin's leadership at domestic and regional levels has assumed significance. On December 26, 2016 Putin met with the leaders of several former Soviet republics in St. Petersburg, a day after the 25th anniversary of the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
The Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, stated prior to that meeting that Putin believed the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 was a mistake and disaster. While the disintegration cannot now be reversed, Putin believes in a “new integration in the space of the former Soviet Union”. The Presidents of Armenia, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Kyrghyzstan were in St. Petersburg for the meetings, which included informal summits of the Eurasian Economic Union, that has become a reality in 2015, and Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO). Hence with that objective at that summit Putin expressed his hope that the creation of a favourable business environment was needed to achieve full-fledged development of their economies. He opined that since forming a common market with the other Eurasian Economic Union countries about two years ago, trade between them has already increased significantly. This has been possible since non-tariff trade barriers have been slashed by 30 per cent and a single market for drug and medical products has been created. Thus by 2025 the EEU aimed at the formation of a common financial market and common markets for gas, oil, and petroleum products, with harmonised rules of trade. By this Putin's objective and vision may partly be achieved. In fact ever since Putin came to power in 1999, his mission has been to make Russia great again and restore its due place in contemporary world history.
Thirdly, it is a matter of great global significance that Putin has been able to bring about a ceasefire deal in the Syrian conflict. On December 28, 2016 the Syria ceasefire deal was signed and Russia and Turkey were ‘Guarantors' for the same. Putin, having signed the ceasefire agreement with Turkey, stated that the Russian military would scale down its presence in Syria, but he didn't say how many troops and weapons would be withdrawn. More importantly, Putin has asserted that Russia will continue “fighting international terrorism in Syria” and supporting the Assad Government. While the West had been critical of Russia's aggressive acts in Syria during the last couple of years, there has been a drastic change with the signing of the peace treaty in Astana in January 2017. It is opined by some analysts including Vasily Maximov that Moscow's intervention under the leadership of Putin in Syria has an important dimension and that Russia has succeeded in trying to boost its position in the Middle East and demonstrate its global stature while attaining leverage in negotiations with the West.
Fourthly, Putin has succeeded in increasing convergence between Russia and China on many global issues during the past few years. It is significant that in December 2016 Putin displayed renewed interest in the long-delayed China-Russia highway across the Amur River by extending technical and financial assistance to it; it is to be completed by 2019 and will enhance trade relations. China is thirsty for energy and raw materials from Russia to fuel its economic growth. In fact he is aware that what is binding them together has been their shared interest in balancing the USA on global issues. It needs to be stated that another major factor drawing them together is a mutual dependence because even as Russia, though superior to China in nuclear weapons, is no match as far as the Chinese conventional military weaponry is concerned. Russia's Look-East policy subsequent to the conflict with Ukraine on the Crimean issue in 2014, which worsened Russia's political and economic relations with Europe and the USA, was welcomed by Beijing and that was “an axis of convenience” as rightly stated by Alexander Gabuev of the Carnegie Moscow Centre highlighting Russia-China relations.
Fifthly, Russia is also in recent years growing closer to Pakistan and this is a matter of anxiety, especially at a time that India is trying to isolate Pakistan in this region. China is already a strong supporter of Pakistan and with the two major powers involving themselves with Pakistan, it is certainly not good news as far as India is concerned. Further, Russia held its first ever joint military exercise with Pakistan days after the Uri terror strike (September 2016) in the Indian administered State of Jammu and Kashmir and at the BRICS Goa Summit, India felt let down by Russia as Moscow did not support Delhi's stand by publicly naming the Pakistan-based terror outfits, Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammad, as opined by Sachin Parashar. It needs to be noted that one cannot deny that both Russia and Pakistan are opening a new era of strategic and political alliance. President Putin's proposed visit to Pakistan in May of this year will witness the inauguration of the US $ 2 billion LNG North-South Pipeline from Karachi to Lahore, as reported in the International News by Noor Aftab. This is possibly intended by Putin who wants to enhance Russia's presence and influence in South Asia.
Lastly, on the domestic front Putin enjoys support and popularity by over 80 per cent of the population. Even as there are some Opposition parties and political leaders, including Alexei Navalny who proposes to contest in the presidential election against Putin, he has made sure that no political Opposition exists to challenge his authoritarian rule. It is worth noting that Russia's annexation of Crimea has boosted Putin's popularity at home even as there is strong opposition in the West. Russians constitute a substantial portion of the population in Crimea which has helped in the referendum held for the annexation. Russia claims that all legal processes were in place for that purpose.
In his annual state-of-the-nation address on December 1, 2016, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the country is unified like never before and is fully capable of achieving its strategic economic and geopolitical goals. Speaking at the Defence Ministry on December 22, 2016 Putin asserted that Russia's military is now stronger than any possible attacker but must be prepared to adjust plans to neutralise the potential threats to the country.
Dr R.g. gidadhubli is a Professor and former Director, Centre for Central Eurasian Studies, University of Mumbai. Dr Rama Sampathkumar is a former Assistant Professor, Centre for Central Eurasian Studies, University of Mumbai.