Even for a longtime compulsive Iran-watcher, this is feast to the mind—never in these three decades has the struggle within the US establishment been so fierce as it is today regarding America's painful Iran question. To engage, or not to engage Iran—that is the question. In a fascinating story, New York Times takes the American heartbeat.
Of course, an unseen hand is propelling the street-smart lawmakers on The Hill to apply the brakes on President Barack Obama even as momentum is building up in the US opinion that there is no alternative to engaging Iran and the Hassan Rouhani presidency opens a window of opportunity to address the historic three-decade-old standoff.
It is not a question of putting shackles on Obama's presidential prerogative to conduct foreign policy, it is a do-or-die situation for the Israeli lobby.
The Israeli nightmare is that if a US-Iranian engagement gains traction, there will be a tectonic shift in the geopolitics of the Middle East and Israel's pivotal position in the US' regional strategies may undergo erosion.
Israel is panicking that projects such as the reported US-backed rail line from Afghanistan connecting the Iranian ports on the Arabian Sea would be a game-changer.
The latest 175-page report to the US Congress, submitted by the US' Special Inspector-General for Afghan Reconstruction, says: “Iran is the preferred destination for mineral exports [from Afghanistan] because the route is more efficient and Iran's rail infrastruc-ture is in better condition than Pakistan's.”
Incredible, isn't it that the US military wants to take up and forthwith implement that very same project that the lethargic, boastful, vacuous, cowardly Indian bureaucrats and their political masters merely talked about over chai and samosa for some two decades and did nothing about? The mandarins in South Block may hang their heads in shame if they read pages 164-166 of the report.
To be sure, Obama has gone the extra league to raise the comfort level for Israel, the latest move being the appointment of Martin Indyk as the pointperson for the resumed Middle East talks. Indyk is not just an old ‘Israel hand', he is veritably ‘Israel's hand'.
Obama did it with the sole purpose to inspire confidence in Tel Aviv that he will always be a guardian angel of Israel's best interests. But Israel won't bite, nonetheless.
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Iran's integration as a regional power, normalisation of Iran's ties with the West, Iran's opening up as the last frontier in energy—these are not things Israel wants.
Because, they will mean Israel will be compelled to settle down as a normal state of six million people. The disappearance of the Iran bogey would compel Israel to address the Palestinian problem.
Whereas, Iran's nuclear issue has been a useful distraction for decades for Tel Aviv to sidetrack the so-called ‘international community'.
Hence the last-minute campaign on Iran's nuclear programme. The latest US ‘think tank' report says Iran will have “critical capability to process low-enriched uranium into material for a nuclear weapon without detection by international inspectors by mid-2014”. Eureka!
The unspoken message is, ‘This is no time to for the President of the United States to engage this perfidious country, Iran, in negotiations.' For old Iran-watchers, there is a sense of deja vu.
The big question is whether Obama will muster the political courage to defy the Israeli lobby and take the leap of faith to engage Iran.
M.K. Bhadrakumar served as a career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service for over 29 years, with postings including India's ambassador to Uzbekistan (1995-1998) and to Turkey (1998-2001).